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Bankers Have Reached a Stage Which ABS Has Predicted in November, 2013


Rajesh Goyal 

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The last few days have seen a lot of activity and visitors on our website have increased a lot.   The reason is simple, first CLC meeting.  Then negotiation meeting, which was termed as "Satisfactory" by UFBU leaders. Then deferring of strike for 20th and 21st January, 2014.  Then another negotiating meeting on 27th January, 2014 meeting.  Under pressure from their cadre through social media, the same union leaders who termed the offer of 9.5% as satisfactory, now announce that offer of 10% is a failure.  Undoubtedly double talks and no clarity on number of issues which have been raised by us on this website and later on taken up by Mr Dilip Saha through an open letter to AIBOC national level leadership has sent shock waves among the cadres.    However, till date there is complete silence from UFBU (27th Evening)

Thus, in a nut shell, one will feel that UFBU is doing a hard work in last 15 days by gearing up the machinery for negotiation.  However, an analysis will show that it is nothing but is absolutely on the predicted lines and they are trying to delay it as much as possible.  On 19th November, we have uploaded an article under the heading   UFBU and IBA Now Adopting Delaying Tactics To Tire the Bankers So That They Give Up Their Demand For  Honourable  Wage Revision  by Rajesh Goyal (uploaded on 19/11/2013).  

Under this article I have tried to predict the things that are likely to happen in next two to three months based on my past experience.   Below I am giving some extracts from the article along with what has actually happened :-

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Predictions As Per Article uploaded at ABS on 19/11/2013 Status as on evening of 27th January, 2014 (after two months of predictions) after latest negotiating meeting
UFBU is likely to issue hardline statement after the meeting on 21st November, 2013 As perdicted UFBU issued a hardline statement for the undue delay in negotiations and talked of agitational programme.
UFBU is likely to announce various agitation programme spanning over a period of 3 to 4 weeks and ultimately culminating into a strike call sometime somewhere around middle of January, 2014 Vide circular dated 21st November, a detailed Agitation Programme was announced with a strike call for 20th December, 2013

However, unexpected strike call was adhered.  It had no effect and IBA kept silent and now UFBU had to issue strike call for 2 days i.e. for 20th and 21st January, 2014.

Just Before the strike date, IBA will appeal for calling of strike and both parties may go for reconciliation proceedings, and thereby calling off strike and the meeting for negotiations may be held sometimes towards the end of January, 2014 Actually the same thing happened, as was predicted, and both parties attended CLC meeting on 13th January and strike was kept in abeyance, and meeting was held on 17th January, 2014, but strike was deferred with IBA offer of 9.5% rise on Pay Slip component.  This created all around confusion as even leaders of AIBOC of other Banks were kept in dark about details.
It will be around this time that Election Commission is likely to announce Election Schedule for next Lok Sabha, and IBA is likely to put the boggy of model code of conduct and postpone any serious negotiations only after elections i.e. May 2014 Now another meeting held on 27th January, 2014 and has resulted in failure and now two days strike announced for 10th & 11th February, 2014.    Election Commission has already announced that it will be holding an All Party meeting on 4th February, 2014 (i.e. before the next date of strike of 10th and 11th February) to finalise the dates for Lok Sabha elections. .  Thus announcement for elections can be there any time after 6th February, 2014.

Further can be predicted by our readers too.

The whole episode makes one thing clear that a fool like me who has never been associated with any Union can predict as to how UFBU will be behaving in the days to come.   In the said article I have suggested that UFBU needs to think of some OUT OF BOX strategy to corner IBA and not on the predicted lines.   However, it seems they have run out of all  IDEAS and as a result the life of a general banker has become a hell.  

The kind of response we receive on the articles indicates that they even offer a novice like me to come forward and lead them.   Knowingly well that I do not have any experience, I think they believe in me purely because of the sincerity and frankness which I show during my articles.   Therefore, my advise to UFBU is to show sincerity and commitment towards the aam banker or else time is coming when they will uproot leaders who are know seen more and more as suckers enjoying on the subscription money running into crores.  

Please, please wake up for the same of your own cadre.


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